How to sell more and attract FDI in a world of “openness with tolls” after Javier Milei’s legislative victory on October 26, 2025.
Introduction: a real opportunity in a demanding context
Wider macro and trade context. Argentina’s pro‑market turn overlaps with a world that blends two seemingly opposite forces: (1) the need for more trade and investment to sustain growth and the energy transition; (2) new “tolls” (strategic tariffs, climate rules, due diligence) that condition market access. For firms and global buyers, this is not a brake but a rule change: winners master compliance + negotiation as much as price and quality.
Three market‑access scenarios (2025–2027).
- Base (most likely): steady “openness with tolls”; U.S. tariffs and EU climate rules remain; sector deals relieve frictions at the margin. Requires case‑by‑case management by product/HTS.
- Bull: selective easing in critical sectors (energy/minerals), progress on bespoke bilateral deals with Argentina. Pulls in FDI and 5–7‑year offtakes.
- Bear: higher geopolitical tension lifts barriers, freight and export controls; becomes essential to diversify destinations and optimize rules of origin with co‑manufacturing.
What “openness with tolls” means in practice. It means more documentation (carbon footprint, origin, standards), more negotiation (exclusions, quotas, mutual recognition) and more planning (hedges, efficiency capex, supply‑chain redesign). This playbook translates that reality into actionable steps.
The new international board: “openness with tolls”
U.S. tariff architecture (operational view).
- Section 232 (metals): tariffs that can reach 50% for steel/aluminum and certain derivatives. How to manage: (1) identify HTS; (2) check if there is a current exclusion for the specific product; (3) if not, prepare an exclusion petition with evidence of: inadequate domestic supply, unique technical specs, critical lead times, impact on downstream/Jobs; (4) monitor the docket and respond to comments.
- Reciprocal (baseline) tariff: a regime enabling a floor tariff in the absence of reciprocity. Implication: without an FTA or special arrangement, some Argentine goods face a baseline; the path out is exclusions or ad‑hoc sector deals.
EU: climate, standardization and trade defense.
- CBAM (from 2026): importers must register as authorized declarants, build MRV (measurement, reporting, verification), and buy/submit certificates aligned with embedded emissions. Sectors include steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity and hydrogen, with likely extensions later.
- Sector measures (e.g., EVs): the EU applies anti‑subsidy/dumping and targeted duties to protect strategic chains. This reprices inputs (steel, aluminum, chemicals), requiring pricing and product‑mix recalibration.
Asia (China + neighbors): contract‑level pragmatism. Despite tensions, Asia wants volume, continuity and quality. The key is contracts with penalties for non‑performance, supply guarantees and pre‑financing options (prepayments, consignment) to secure production slots.
Bottom line: the world rewards companies that comply (origin, CO₂, standards) and negotiate finely (exclusions, origin rules, sector accords). That is the “price” of accessing large markets in 2025–2027.
What is changing inside Argentina (2024–2025)
Operational translation of DNU 70/2023 and the 2024 Bases Law.
- Regulatory simplification: fewer procedures and more digital one‑stop windows reduce permit and registration lead times. Impact: better inventory turns and lower carrying costs.
- Privatizations/private participation: new operators with know‑how in logistics, energy and services can raise reliability and lower unit costs.
- Pro‑investment signal: incremental legal stability and a pro‑market narrative improve the cost of capital. For companies: easier project finance and trade‑credit insurance.
- Implementation challenge: provincial/municipal heterogeneity; map subnational requirements (environmental, land use, licenses) and build time buffers into schedules.
Where the opportunities are (2025–2027)
Core idea: Exporting more in 2025–2027 is not “selling the same to more buyers” but shifting into segments and contracts that survive the tolls (232, CBAM, trade defense) and anchor cash flow (offtakes, capacity bookings, SLAs). Below is an expanded map of where to play (profitable sub‑segments), how to win (operational tactics) and traffic lights (quick validations) by vertical.
1) Agrifood and proteins
Where to play (sub‑segments):
- Oilseeds & premium meals: high‑protein meal (soy 47–48%), refined oils for snacks/infant food, functional blends.
- Pulses & specialties: 8–10 mm chickpeas, black/navy beans for MENA/EU/U.S., gluten‑free flours (chickpea).
- Beef & derivatives: grain‑fed cuts with certifications, high‑value offal in Asia, processed proteins (cooked/frozen) for foodservice.
- Additives/ingredients: lecithin, soy protein concentrates, clean‑label ingredients.
How to win (tactics):
- Certifications: HACCP/BRCGS/IFS + Halal/Kosher and residue limits by destination.
- Contracts: CME‑based pricing + shipping windows; variation clauses for freight/tariffs; QA/QC with tight limits on mycotoxins and moisture.
- Logistics: on‑farm bag storage & conditioning; alternative ports; SLAs with terminals and forwarders (capped dwell times).
- Traceability: lotting, serialization and a buyer portal with digital CoA/CoC.
Quick traffic lights:
- Green: destination rejects <1%; DSO <45 days; basis differential ≤ target.
- Yellow: port congestion >10 days; moisture claims >1%.
- Red: repeated sanitary non‑compliance; spot freight >20% of FOB.
Margin levers: optimize shrinkage, blends (target quality) and load consolidation to lower $/ton.
2) Energy (Vaca Muerta, midstream and petrochemicals)
Where to play (sub‑segments):
- Small/medium‑scale gas/LNG: seasonal capacity bookings; regional swaps; ship‑or‑pay contracts.
- LPG & condensates: flows to MENA/Africa with short charters; Mont Belvieu‑indexed contracts.
- Petrochemicals: polyolefins, glycols, resins for packaging.
How to win (tactics):
- Offtakes with take‑or‑pay, guarantees (LC/standby), Brent/Henry Hub + diffs pricing.
- Financing: project finance with ECA/DFI support and contract collateral.
- Operations: predictive maintenance, utilization factor >90%, controlled technical losses; permit management via a regulatory PMO.
Quick traffic lights:
- Green: utilization >85%; outages <3% of time; 100% HSE compliance.
- Yellow: >30% volatility in spreads; permit delays >60 days.
- Red: environmental breaches; off‑taker without investment grade.
Margin levers: debottlenecking in midstream, seasonal contracts, and capacity options to capture price spikes.
3) Critical minerals (lithium, copper)
Where to play (sub‑segments):
- Lithium: battery‑grade carbonate (LCE) 99.5%+ and hydroxide for NMC/LFP cathodes; by‑products (potash salts).
- Copper: concentrates with competitive TC/RC; high‑purity cathodes for EV/data‑center circuits.
How to win (tactics):
- Bankable ESG: CO₂ MRV, water footprint, on‑site renewables; community agreements (FPIC).
- Commercial: 3–7‑year offtakes with OEMs/battery makers.
- Finance: prepayments, streaming/royalties; political risk insurance.
Quick traffic lights:
- Green: purity variability within spec; positive ESG audit.
- Yellow: TC/RC up 20% vs. plan; permit delays >90 days.
- Red: socio‑environmental litigation; quality failures (traces, moisture).
Margin levers: energy mix improvements and better metallurgical recovery; contracts with price floors.
4) Manufactures exposed to Section 232 (steel/aluminum and derivatives)
Where to play (sub‑segments):
- Flat & long products with special processes (galvanizing, coatings, tight tolerances).
- Aluminum: extrusions/rolled for HVAC, light auto, packaging.
- Components: valves, fittings, specialty fasteners (ASTM/ASME), machined parts.
How to win (tactics):
- 232 exclusion: dossier with specs, letters from U.S. buyers, analysis of domestic non‑availability and critical lead times.
- USMCA origin: co‑manufacturing in Mexico/U.S. (IMMEX) with substantial transformation (cold rolling, machining, heat treatment) to meet rules and lower the effective tariff.
- Contracts: automatic tariff pass‑through; dual pricing (with/without exclusion).
Quick traffic lights:
- Green: exclusion approval rate >40%; post‑232 margin ≥ target.
- Yellow: lead times >20% above SLA; exclusion backlog idle >60 days.
- Red: repeated denials; anti‑dumping investigations.
Margin levers: logistics re‑routing, optimal lot sizes and product families that share processes to scale without inventory bloat.
5) Knowledge‑based services (SaaS, BPO, fintech)
Where to play (sub‑segments):
- TradeTech/RegTech: CBAM calculators, origin traceability, digital customs documentation.
- EnergyTech/MiningTech: OPEX optimization, CO₂ monitoring, predictive maintenance.
- RetailTech: dynamic pricing with tolls (CBAM, tariffs) and freight embedded.
How to win (tactics):
- Compliance: GDPR, SOC 2 and robust DPAs; clean IP ownership.
- Go‑to‑market: partners in EU/U.S., SLAs with uptime credits, 24/5 support.
- Commercial: 60–90‑day pilots with landed‑cost‑saving KPIs.
Quick traffic lights:
- Green: CAC payback <12 months; quarterly churn <5%; NPS >45.
- Yellow: enterprise deals >6 months without close; audits with minor findings.
- Red: SOC 2 gaps or data incidents.
Margin levers: templates/adapters per client, tiered support and an API catalog.
6) Chemicals and fertilizers (new)
Where to play: nitrogen fertilizers, customized NPK solutions; base chemicals for packaging and food. How to win: take‑or‑pay contracts with distributors, local blending to adjust origin; REACH compatibility for EU. Traffic lights: REACH compliance and safety sheets; gas/naptha volatility; global urea availability. Margin levers: feedstock hedging and optimized bulk logistics.
7) Packaging (new)
Where to play: aluminum cans & closures, barrier flexibles for food, sustainable corrugated. How to win: recycled content, food‑safety certifications, integration with CBAM registries when applicable (aluminum). Traffic lights: migration test failure rates; CBAM cost/ton aluminum; customer homologation lead times. Margin levers: design for recycling and format standardization to scale.
8) Infrastructure & logistics services (new)
Where to play: cold storage, cross‑docking for e‑commerce, barges and feeders to less‑congested ports. How to win: SLAs guaranteeing fill rate; integrated TMS/WMS and chain visibility for global clients. Traffic lights: dwell time >48 h; port delays; ISPS/HACCP compliance. Margin levers: alternative routings, carrier agreements, and consolidation for load density.
Decision cheat‑sheet (summary)
- Product meets standard + favorable origin → go direct to EU/U.S.; prioritize framework agreements and SLAs.
- Product exposed to 232/CBAM → activate exclusion/MRV + pass‑through; assess co‑manufacturing.
- Product with Asian demand → guaranteed‑volume contracts (penalties) and prepayments.
Section wrap‑up: Focus on contracts that anchor demand and finance capex (offtakes, take‑or‑pay), origin design to reduce tolls and flawless documentation that turns compliance into a sales advantage. That is what will separate winners in 2025–2027.
How to sell into “toll” markets: destination playbook
Landed‑cost formula (simplified). FOBpriceFOB priceFOBprice + Freight+InsuranceFreight + InsuranceFreight+Insurance + Tariff/TollTariff/TollTariff/Toll + Compliancecosts(CBAM,MRV,certifications)Compliance costs (CBAM, MRV, certifications)Compliancecosts(CBAM,MRV,certifications) + DestinationchargesDestination chargesDestinationcharges = CIF/Landed cost. The gap vs. the buyer’s target price defines the negotiation space and whether to pursue an exclusion/quota, origin redesign or decarbonization.
Useful contractual clauses (template).
- Regulatory‑change: automatic price adjustment on new tariffs or climate tolls.
- Expanded force‑majeure: includes global logistics disruptions and export controls.
- Hardship: renegotiation if costs exceed an agreed threshold.
- CO₂ pass‑through: explicit CBAM cost sharing per formula.
From here, the breakdown by destination.
United States
- Tariff map and origin due‑diligence: confirm exposure to 232 or baseline; if co‑manufacturing, validate rules of origin.
- Exclusions: prepare a technical dossier (specs, drawings, ASTM/EN, yields) + buyer letters; calendarize filing windows.
- Substantial transformation: assess operations (cold rolling, assembly, machining, heat treatment) that meet origin rules without blowing up costs.
- Ad‑hoc deals: explore sector MOUs via chambers and anchor buyers.
- Finance & insurance: FX hedges, trade‑credit insurance, and escrow for new counterparties.
- KPIs: % of sales under approved exclusions, post‑232 margin, lead time, fill rate.
European Union
- CBAM 2026: register as declarant, design the MRV system (measure/report/verify) with third‑party audit; prepare certificate purchases.
- Decarbonization: prioritize quick wins (energy, fuels, thermal efficiency) to cut CO₂ intensity per unit.
- Trade defense: monitor sector cases (anti‑dumping/subsidy) and adjust product mix.
- Origin & documentation: material tree (BOM), serialization/lots, origin proofs.
- KPIs: tCO₂/ton, CBAM $/ton, % of orders with pass‑through, EU customs clearance time.
China and Asia
- Guaranteed supply: contracts with penalties and prepayment options.
- Geopolitical risk: contingency plans for export controls and sanctions.
- Quality: product certifications and in‑plant QA/QC.
- Diversification: grow customers in ASEAN, Korea, India and MENA.
- KPIs: OTIF (on‑time, in‑full), reject rate, days of inventory in transit.
Mercosur, Brazil and LatAm
- Co‑manufacturing to improve rules of origin and access preferences.
- Density economics: consolidate loads and optimize routes.
- Documentation: certificates of origin, technical and sanitary approvals.
- KPIs: logistics cost per ton‑km, border dwell time, % of shipments with remarks.
90/180/365‑day roadmap for Argentine companies
Day 0–30: Diagnostic
- Tariff & climate audit (232, baseline, CBAM) by product line.
- HTS/NC mapping and rules of origin with detailed BOM.
- Contract review (Incoterms, force‑majeure, regulatory‑change, CO₂ pass‑through).
- CO₂ measurement capability check and MRV pilot plan.
Day 31–90: Preparation
- Dossier for 232 exclusions: technical sheets, buyer letters, U.S. domestic market analysis.
- CBAM registration and verifier selection; plant‑level emissions inventory.
- Financing structure (trade‑credit insurance, pre‑export finance, forfaiting).
- Logistics playbook with alternate vendors and SLAs.
Day 91–180: Execution
- File exclusions and negotiate quotas/sector deals.
- Pilot digital traceability (serialization, lots, QA/QC) and a client portal to share docs.
- Fiscal optimization: drawback, rebates, provincial incentives.
Day 181–365: Scale‑up
- Capex in efficiency/decarbonization (continuous metering, cogeneration, process electrification).
- Regional co‑manufacturing alliances for favorable origin.
- 2–5‑year offtakes (mining/energy) and framework agreements in agri/food.
Practical case studies (illustrative)
Case A — Semi‑finished steel → U.S.
- Problem: 232 at 50% turns EBITDA margin to −7 pp.
- Solution: (1) Product‑specific exclusion (technical argument + U.S. buyer letters); (2) additional process in North America to meet origin (e.g., cold rolling + coating); (3) automatic adjustment clauses for 232.
- Expected result: recover 8–15 pp if exclusion is granted or origin optimized; OTIF improves with reserved slots.
Case B — Battery‑grade lithium → EU
- Problem: buyer demands tCO₂/ton under a threshold and third‑party verification.
- Solution: certified MRV, replace thermal with renewable electricity, offtakes indexed to LCE with CBAM escalators.
- Result: project finance access and premium pricing vs. higher‑footprint suppliers.
Case C — Grains → Asia
- Problem: volatility due to U.S.–China purchase cycles and port congestion.
- Solution: flexible contracts (windows, CME bases), hedging, optimized routing (barges/alternative ports) and deals with regional traders.
- Result: margin stability, better fill rate and lower DSO.
Case D — SaaS/BPO → EU
- Problem: GDPR/SOC 2 and IP demands.
- Solution: SOC 2 Type II, robust DPA, contracts with SLAs and penalties for uptime.
- Result: access to enterprise clients and 3‑year deals.
Risks and mitigations
Risk matrix (extract).
- External regulatory: tariff/climate shocks → monthly monitoring, adjustment clauses, diversification.
- Internal implementation: permit/reform bottlenecks → regulatory PMO and time buffers.
- Commodities: price shocks → hedges and contract escalators.
- FX: spreads and shocks → hedging and currency matching.
- Environmental/social: licensing delays → IFC/ESG standards, early consultation, remediation channels.
Early‑warning triggers.
- Freight costs up >20% in 30 days.
- CBAM certificate cost up >15% in a quarter.
- Destination reject rate >3%.
- Average customs delay >5 days vs. baseline.
Where Krou Trading LLC fits
End‑to‑end services.
- Regulatory/compliance: product‑level 232/CBAM diagnostics, exclusion dossiers, MRV design and verifier selection.
- Chain & origin: co‑manufacturing to improve origin rules, documentation standardization (BOM, origin proofs), QA/QC.
- Commercial & contracts: offtakes, CO₂ pass‑through, hardship and regulatory‑change; negotiations with anchor buyers.
- Financing & insurance: trade‑credit insurance, forfaiting, guarantees.
- Logistics: route optimization, SLAs and contingency plans.
ComexMania connection. On our blog we share cases and templates (CBAM checklists, exclusion dossier models, origin guides) that complement this playbook.
Conclusion: from adjustment to opportunity
The combination of domestic openness and external tolls is redefining how to compete. Argentina can export more and better by executing a two‑step play: (1) operational and documentary excellence (HTS, origin, MRV, QA/QC), and (2) smart negotiation (exclusions, sector deals, cost pass‑through). The next 12–24 months are the window to capture share and magnetize FDI in agri, energy, mining, manufacturing and services.
The message for leadership teams is clear: plan + processes + metrics. With discipline and the right partners, tolls cease to be barriers and become a competitive edge.
